SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AFC Telford United win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Curzon Ashton had a probability of 31.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an AFC Telford United win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.91%) and 2-0 (7.31%). The likeliest Curzon Ashton win was 0-1 (8.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| AFC Telford United | Draw | Curzon Ashton |
42.63% ( -0.3) | 25.75% ( 0.05) | 31.62% ( 0.25) |
| Both teams to score 53.99% ( -0.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.98% ( -0.11) | 50.01% ( 0.1) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28% ( -0.09) | 71.99% ( 0.09) |
| AFC Telford United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.68% ( -0.19) | 23.32% ( 0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 42.73% ( -0.28) | 57.26% ( 0.28) |
| Curzon Ashton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.4% ( 0.12) | 29.59% ( -0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 34.37% ( 0.14) | 65.63% ( -0.14) |
| Score Analysis |
| AFC Telford United | Draw | Curzon Ashton |
| 1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.91% ( -0.03)2-0 @ 7.31% ( -0.05)3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.04)3-0 @ 3.55% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.63% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.57% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 1.29% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 0.96% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 42.62% | 1-1 @ 12.23% ( 0.02) 0-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.42% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.07% ( -0)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.75% | 0-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.06) 1-2 @ 7.45% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 5.12% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 3.02% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 2.2% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.08% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.44% Total : 31.62% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | King's Lynn TownKing's Lynn | 44 | 25 | 12 | 7 | 79 | 42 | 37 | 87 |
| 2 | Fylde | 43 | 26 | 8 | 9 | 71 | 43 | 28 | 86 |
| 3 | Chester FCChester | 44 | 20 | 18 | 6 | 67 | 41 | 26 | 78 |
| 4 | Brackley Town | 44 | 18 | 14 | 12 | 55 | 43 | 12 | 68 |
| 5 | Scarborough AthleticScarborough Ath | 44 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 70 | 65 | 5 | 66 |
| 6 | Alfreton TownAlfreton | 43 | 16 | 17 | 10 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 65 |
| 7 | Gloucester CityGloucester City | 44 | 18 | 11 | 15 | 70 | 63 | 7 | 65 |
| 8 | Darlington | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 70 | 61 | 9 | 64 |
| 9 | Curzon AshtonCurzon Ashton | 43 | 18 | 10 | 15 | 56 | 49 | 7 | 64 |
| 10 | Buxton | 44 | 17 | 13 | 14 | 52 | 49 | 3 | 64 |
| 11 | Chorley | 44 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 58 | 46 | 12 | 63 |
| 12 | Kidderminster HarriersKidderminster | 44 | 17 | 12 | 15 | 43 | 41 | 2 | 63 |
| 13 | Spennymoor TownSpennymoor | 44 | 16 | 14 | 14 | 65 | 66 | -1 | 62 |
| 14 | Peterborough SportsP'boro Sports | 44 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 50 | 53 | -3 | 57 |
| 15 | Hereford UnitedHereford | 44 | 15 | 9 | 20 | 47 | 51 | -4 | 54 |
| 16 | Banbury UnitedBanbury | 44 | 13 | 14 | 17 | 52 | 58 | -6 | 53 |
| 17 | Boston UnitedBoston | 44 | 14 | 10 | 20 | 62 | 63 | -1 | 52 |
| 18 | SouthportSouthport | 44 | 13 | 11 | 20 | 48 | 57 | -9 | 50 |
| 19 | Kettering TownKettering | 44 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 41 | 59 | -18 | 49 |
| 20 | Farsley CelticFarsley Celtic | 44 | 11 | 15 | 18 | 48 | 70 | -22 | 48 |
| 21 | Leamington FCLeamington | 44 | 9 | 18 | 17 | 38 | 54 | -16 | 45 |
| 22 | Blyth Spartans | 44 | 10 | 15 | 19 | 42 | 61 | -19 | 45 |
| 23 | Bradford Park AvenueBradford Park Av | 43 | 10 | 12 | 21 | 40 | 63 | -23 | 42 |
| 24 | AFC Telford UnitedTelford | 44 | 6 | 13 | 25 | 33 | 71 | -38 | 31 |
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