SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 45.91%. A win for Sporting Kansas City had a probability of 31.46% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.03%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.64%) and 2-0 (6.08%). The likeliest Sporting Kansas City win was 1-2 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| St Louis City | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
45.91% ( 0.93) | 22.62% ( -0.24) | 31.46% ( -0.69) |
| Both teams to score 64.96% ( 0.54) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.38% ( 0.85) | 35.62% ( -0.86) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.32% ( 0.94) | 57.68% ( -0.94) |
| St Louis City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.97% ( 0.68) | 16.03% ( -0.68) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.62% ( 1.23) | 45.38% ( -1.24) |
| Sporting Kansas City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.36% ( 0.02) | 22.64% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.73% ( 0.03) | 56.27% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| St Louis City | Draw | Sporting Kansas City |
| 2-1 @ 9.03% ( 0.04) 1-0 @ 6.64% ( -0.13)2-0 @ 6.08% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 5.51% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 4.09% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.1)4-1 @ 2.52% ( 0.12)4-2 @ 1.87% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.7% ( 0.08)4-3 @ 0.93% ( 0.05)5-1 @ 0.92% ( 0.07)Other @ 2.89% Total : 45.91% | 1-1 @ 9.87% ( -0.18) 2-2 @ 6.71% ( 0.03)0-0 @ 3.63% ( -0.16)3-3 @ 2.03% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.39% Total : 22.62% | 1-2 @ 7.33% ( -0.14) 0-1 @ 5.39% ( -0.23)0-2 @ 4% ( -0.17)1-3 @ 3.63% ( -0.07)2-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 1.98% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.35% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.22% Total : 31.46% |
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