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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Philadelphia Union | 24 | 23 | 45 |
| 2 | CF Montreal | 24 | 3 | 40 |
| 3 | New York Red Bulls | 24 | 6 | 37 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | New England Revolution | 23 | 1 | 30 |
| 6 | Chicago Fire | 24 | -3 | 30 |
| 7 | Toronto | 24 | -8 | 26 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 58.19%. A draw had a probability of 22.2% and a win for Chicago Fire had a probability of 19.56%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.98%) and 2-1 (9.92%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.53%), while for a Chicago Fire win it was 0-1 (5.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Philadelphia Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Philadelphia Union | Draw | Chicago Fire |
58.19% ( -0.11) | 22.25% ( 0.01) | 19.56% ( 0.1) |
| Both teams to score 53.41% ( 0.16) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.88% ( 0.12) | 45.12% ( -0.12) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.53% ( 0.11) | 67.46% ( -0.12) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.79% ( 0) | 15.2% ( -0.01) |
