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| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Los Angeles FC | 31 | 26 | 61 |
| 2 | Austin FC | 31 | 18 | 54 |
| 3 | Dallas | 31 | 11 | 49 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dallas | 31 | 11 | 49 |
| 3 | Nashville SC | 31 | 11 | 46 |
| 4 | Portland Timbers | 31 | 3 | 45 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Austin FC win with a probability of 47.38%. A win for Nashville SC had a probability of 28.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for an Austin FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.21%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Nashville SC win was 1-2 (6.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.34%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
| Result | ||
| Austin FC | Draw | Nashville SC |
47.38% ( 0.31) | 24.2% ( -0.05) | 28.42% ( -0.27) |
| Both teams to score 57.35% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.2% ( 0.05) | 44.8% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.84% ( 0.05) | 67.16% ( -0.05) |
| Austin FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.97% ( 0.14) | 19.03% ( -0.15) |
