Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Monterrey win with a probability of 51.41%. A win for Toluca had a probability of 24.98% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Monterrey win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.69%) and 0-2 (8.46%). The likeliest Toluca win was 1-0 (6.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Monterrey would win this match.
