SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Grimsby Town win with a probability of 47.76%. A win for Crawley Town had a probability of 26.54% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Grimsby Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.73%). The likeliest Crawley Town win was 0-1 (8.05%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Grimsby Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Grimsby Town | Draw | Crawley Town |
47.76% ( 0.24) | 25.7% ( -0.12) | 26.54% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 51.08% ( 0.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.64% ( 0.38) | 52.36% ( -0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.95% ( 0.32) | 74.05% ( -0.32) |
| Grimsby Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.07% ( 0.27) | 21.93% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 44.79% ( 0.4) | 55.2% ( -0.4) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.42% ( 0.1) | 34.58% ( -0.1) |
