Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 44.49%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.07%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (8.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.2% likelihood.
-0.02) 
0.01) 
