SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 74.89%. A draw had a probability of 17.4% and a win for Drogheda United had a probability of 7.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 2-0 with a probability of 16.01%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (15.04%) and 3-0 (11.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.84%), while for a Drogheda United win it was 0-1 (3.68%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 1.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | Drogheda United |
74.89% ( -0.04) | 17.36% ( 0.02) | 7.75% ( 0.02) |
| Both teams to score 35.78% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.41% ( -0.01) | 50.6% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.49% ( -0.01) | 72.51% ( 0.01) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.11% ( -0.02) | 11.89% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 62.78% ( -0.03) | 37.22% ( 0.03) |
| Drogheda United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 40.6% ( 0.05) | 59.4% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 9.66% ( 0.03) | 90.34% ( -0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | Drogheda United |
| 2-0 @ 16.01% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 15.04% 3-0 @ 11.36% ( -0.02)2-1 @ 8.34% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 6.05% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 5.92% ( 0)4-1 @ 3.15% ( -0)5-0 @ 2.58% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 1.54% ( 0)5-1 @ 1.34% ( -0)6-0 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 2.64% Total : 74.88% | 1-1 @ 7.84% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 7.07% ( 0)2-2 @ 2.17% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.29% Total : 17.36% | 0-1 @ 3.68% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 2.04% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 0.96% ( 0)Other @ 1.07% Total : 7.75% |
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