SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 5 | Sligo Rovers | 21 | 5 | 29 |
| 6 | Bohemians | 20 | 0 | 26 |
| 7 | Shelbourne | 20 | -7 | 25 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 20 | 14 | 38 |
| 3 | Derry City | 21 | 16 | 37 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 22 | 8 | 32 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 36.48%. A win for Bohemians had a probability of 34.79% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.62%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Bohemians win was 1-0 (11.67%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Derry City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Bohemians | Draw | Derry City |
34.79% ( -0.23) | 28.73% ( -0.65) | 36.48% ( 0.88) |
| Both teams to score 45.62% ( 1.8) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.09% ( 2.18) | 60.91% ( -2.18) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.08% ( 1.61) | 80.92% ( -1.61) |
| Bohemians Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67% ( 0.99) | 33% ( -0.99) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 30.41% ( 1.08) | 69.59% ( -1.08) |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.09% ( 1.7) | 31.91% ( -1.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 31.64% ( 1.9) | 68.35% ( -1.9) |
| Score Analysis |
| Bohemians | Draw | Derry City |
| 1-0 @ 11.67% ( -0.65) 2-1 @ 7.39% ( 0.14)2-0 @ 6.47% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.12)3-0 @ 2.39% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.56% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.58% Total : 34.79% | 1-1 @ 13.33% ( -0.11) 0-0 @ 10.52% ( -0.9)2-2 @ 4.22% ( 0.27)Other @ 0.64% Total : 28.72% | 0-1 @ 12.02% ( -0.43) 1-2 @ 7.62% ( 0.29)0-2 @ 6.87% ( 0.08)1-3 @ 2.9% ( 0.24)0-3 @ 2.62% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 1.61% ( 0.17)Other @ 2.83% Total : 36.47% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Bohemians | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 23 | 13 | 10 | 28 |
| 2 | Shamrock RoversShamrock | 14 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 28 | 13 | 15 | 27 |
| 3 | Derry CityDerry | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 25 |
| 4 | DundalkDundalk | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 4 | 22 |
| 5 | Shelbourne | 14 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | St Patrick's AthleticSt Patrick's | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 22 | -1 | 20 |
| 7 | Sligo RoversSligo | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 19 |
| 8 | Drogheda UnitedDrogheda | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 14 |
| 9 | Cork City | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 17 | 31 | -14 | 9 |
| 10 | University College DublinUCD | 14 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 6 |
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