SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 15 | Kashiwa Reysol | 38 | -19 | 41 |
| 16 | Shonan Bellmare | 38 | -7 | 37 |
| 17 | Tokushima Vortis | 38 | -21 | 36 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kyoto Sanga win with a probability of 43.04%. A win for Shonan Bellmare had a probability of 29.12% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kyoto Sanga win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.49%) and 2-0 (8.33%). The likeliest Shonan Bellmare win was 0-1 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.02%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Kyoto Sanga | Draw | Shonan Bellmare |
43.04% ( 0.12) | 27.84% ( -0.1) | 29.12% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.55% ( 0.28) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.99% ( 0.36) | 59.02% ( -0.35) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.52% ( 0.28) | 79.48% ( -0.27) |
| Kyoto Sanga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.83% ( 0.23) | 27.17% ( -0.22) |
