SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 40.18%. A win for Iceland had a probability of 36.9% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.13%) and 2-0 (5.21%). The likeliest Iceland win was 1-2 (8.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.95%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Venezuela | Draw | Iceland |
40.18% ( -12.48) | 22.92% ( -0.98) | 36.9% ( 13.46) |
| Both teams to score 65.6% ( 12.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 64.51% ( 12.08) | 35.49% ( -12.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 42.47% ( 12.24) | 57.53% ( -12.23) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.74% ( -0.24) | 18.26% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 50.69% ( -0.41) | 49.31% ( 0.41) |
| Iceland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.26% ( 14.88) | 19.74% ( -14.88) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 48.23% ( 19.57) | 51.77% ( -19.57) |
| Score Analysis |
| Venezuela | Draw | Iceland |
| 2-1 @ 8.46% ( -1.26) 1-0 @ 6.13% ( -4.56)2-0 @ 5.21% ( -3.95)3-1 @ 4.79% ( -0.76)3-2 @ 3.89% ( 0.94)3-0 @ 2.95% ( -2.28)4-1 @ 2.04% ( -0.34)4-2 @ 1.65% ( 0.39)4-0 @ 1.26% ( -0.99)Other @ 3.8% Total : 40.18% | 1-1 @ 9.95% ( -1.39) 2-2 @ 6.86% ( 1.71)0-0 @ 3.61% ( -2.63)3-3 @ 2.1% ( 1.06)Other @ 0.41% Total : 22.92% | 1-2 @ 8.07% ( 2.05) 0-1 @ 5.85% ( -0.77)0-2 @ 4.75% ( 1.23)1-3 @ 4.36% ( 2.24)2-3 @ 3.71% ( 1.89)0-3 @ 2.57% ( 1.33)1-4 @ 1.77% ( 1.21)2-4 @ 1.51% ( 1.02)0-4 @ 1.04% ( 0.71)Other @ 3.29% Total : 36.9% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Arsenal | 28 | 22 | 3 | 3 | 66 | 26 | 40 | 69 |
| 2 | Manchester CityMan City | 27 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 67 | 25 | 42 | 61 |
| 3 | Manchester UnitedMan Utd | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | 41 | 35 | 6 | 50 |
| 4 | Tottenham HotspurSpurs | 28 | 15 | 4 | 9 | 52 | 40 | 12 | 49 |
| 5 | Newcastle UnitedNewcastle | 26 | 12 | 11 | 3 | 39 | 19 | 20 | 47 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 47 | 29 | 18 | 42 |
| 7 | Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton | 25 | 12 | 6 | 7 | 46 | 31 | 15 | 42 |
| 8 | Brentford | 27 | 10 | 12 | 5 | 43 | 34 | 9 | 42 |
| 9 | Fulham | 27 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 39 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 29 | 28 | 1 | 38 |
| 11 | Aston Villa | 27 | 11 | 5 | 11 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 38 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 28 | 6 | 9 | 13 | 22 | 38 | -16 | 27 |
| 13 | Wolverhampton WanderersWolves | 28 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 27 |
| 14 | Leeds UnitedLeeds | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 35 | 44 | -9 | 26 |
| 15 | Everton | 28 | 6 | 8 | 14 | 22 | 40 | -18 | 26 |
| 16 | Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest | 27 | 6 | 8 | 13 | 22 | 49 | -27 | 26 |
| 17 | Leicester CityLeicester | 27 | 7 | 4 | 16 | 38 | 47 | -9 | 25 |
| 18 | West Ham UnitedWest Ham | 26 | 6 | 6 | 14 | 24 | 34 | -10 | 24 |
| 19 | Bournemouth | 27 | 6 | 6 | 15 | 25 | 54 | -29 | 24 |
| 20 | Southampton | 28 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | 46 | -23 | 23 |
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