SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Czech Republic | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 2 | Poland | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 3 | Moldova | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| 4 | Faroe Islands | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Albania | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Germany win with a probability of 61.6%. A draw had a probability of 21.7% and a win for Poland had a probability of 16.74%.
The most likely scoreline for a Germany win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.17%) and 1-2 (9.87%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.29%), while for a Poland win it was 1-0 (5.38%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Poland | Draw | Germany |
16.74% ( -0.29) | 21.65% ( 0.02) | 61.6% ( 0.27) |
| Both teams to score 50.02% ( -0.68) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.03% ( -0.59) | 46.97% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.79% ( -0.56) | 69.21% ( 0.56) |
| Poland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.66% ( -0.72) | 41.34% ( 0.72) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 22.14% ( -0.64) | 77.86% ( 0.64) |
| Germany Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.28% ( -0.11) | 14.72% ( 0.11) |
