SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Portugal | 3 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Mexico | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Russia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 3 | -7 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New Zealand win with a probability of 55.06%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for Congo DR had a probability of 20.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a New Zealand win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.27%) and 2-1 (9.69%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.43%), while for a Congo DR win it was 0-1 (6.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New Zealand | Draw | Congo DR |
55.06% ( -0.41) | 24.05% ( 0.17) | 20.89% ( 0.24) |
| Both teams to score 49.83% ( -0.18) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.08% ( -0.42) | 50.91% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.21% ( -0.37) | 72.79% ( 0.37) |
| New Zealand Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.62% ( -0.31) | 18.37% ( 0.31) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 50.5% ( -0.53) | 49.5% ( 0.53) |
| Congo DR Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.04% ( 0.01) | 38.95% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.32% ( 0.01) | 75.68% ( -0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| New Zealand | Draw | Congo DR |
| 1-0 @ 12.12% ( 0.08) 2-0 @ 10.27% ( -0.03)2-1 @ 9.69% ( -0.03)3-0 @ 5.8% ( -0.08)3-1 @ 5.47% ( -0.07)3-2 @ 2.58% ( -0.03)4-0 @ 2.46% ( -0.06)4-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.02)Other @ 3.26% Total : 55.05% | 1-1 @ 11.43% ( 0.08) 0-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.12)2-2 @ 4.57% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.9% Total : 24.05% | 0-1 @ 6.75% ( 0.11) 1-2 @ 5.39% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 3.18% ( 0.06)1-3 @ 1.69% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.44% ( -0)0-3 @ 1% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.44% Total : 20.89% |
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