SM
| Current Group A Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Netherlands | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Senegal | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Ecuador | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 4 | Qatar | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jamaica win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for Qatar had a probability of 28.19% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jamaica win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.61%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest Qatar win was 0-1 (10.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jamaica | Draw | Qatar |
43.77% ( 0.02) | 28.04% ( -0) | 28.19% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 45.53% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.94% ( 0.01) | 60.06% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.72% ( 0.01) | 80.28% ( -0.01) |
| Jamaica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.73% ( 0.02) | 27.27% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 37.29% ( 0.02) | 62.71% ( -0.02) |
| Qatar Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.6% ( -0.01) | 37.4% ( 0.01) |
