SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 8 | 18 | 20 |
| 2 | Italy | 8 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 8 | 3 | 14 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 8 | -10 | 8 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Italy win with a probability of 76.35%. A draw had a probability of 15.7% and a win for Venezuela had a probability of 7.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Italy win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.96%) and 3-0 (11.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.42%), while for a Venezuela win it was 0-1 (3.14%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Italy in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Italy.
| Result | ||
| Italy | Draw | Venezuela |
76.35% ( 0.02) | 15.69% ( -0.01) | 7.96% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 41.87% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.3% ( -0.01) | 42.7% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.9% ( -0.01) | 65.1% ( 0.01) |
| Italy Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.59% ( 0) | 9.42% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.34% ( 0.01) | 31.66% ( -0.01) |
| Venezuela Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 46.22% ( -0.03) | 53.78% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 12.86% ( -0.02) | 87.14% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Italy | Draw | Venezuela |
| 2-0 @ 14.13% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 11.96% 3-0 @ 11.13% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 8.77% ( -0)3-1 @ 6.91% ( -0)4-0 @ 6.58% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.08% ( -0)5-0 @ 3.11% ( 0)3-2 @ 2.14% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.93% 4-2 @ 1.27% ( -0)6-0 @ 1.22% ( 0)Other @ 3.13% Total : 76.34% | 1-1 @ 7.42% ( -0) 0-0 @ 5.06% ( 0)2-2 @ 2.72% ( -0)Other @ 0.49% Total : 15.69% | 0-1 @ 3.14% ( -0) 1-2 @ 2.3% ( -0)0-2 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.54% Total : 7.96% |
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