Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 43.86%. A win for Honduras had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (7.92%). The likeliest Honduras win was 0-1 (8.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ecuador would win this match.
Result | ||
Ecuador | Draw | Honduras |
43.86% (![]() | 26.33% (![]() | 29.81% (![]() |
Both teams to score 51.32% (![]() |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
46.93% (![]() | 53.08% (![]() |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
25.34% (![]() | 74.66% (![]() |
Ecuador Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.95% (![]() | 24.05% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
41.67% (![]() | 58.33% (![]() |
Honduras Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
67.58% (![]() | 32.42% (![]() |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
31.06% (![]() | 68.94% (![]() |
Score Analysis |
Ecuador | Draw | Honduras |
1-0 @ 11.11% (![]() 2-1 @ 8.92% ( ![]() 2-0 @ 7.92% ( ![]() 3-1 @ 4.24% ( ![]() 3-0 @ 3.76% ( ![]() 3-2 @ 2.39% ( ![]() 4-1 @ 1.51% ( ![]() 4-0 @ 1.34% ( ![]() Other @ 2.69% Total : 43.86% | 1-1 @ 12.51% (![]() 0-0 @ 7.8% ( ![]() 2-2 @ 5.02% ( ![]() Other @ 0.99% Total : 26.32% | 0-1 @ 8.78% (![]() 1-2 @ 7.05% ( ![]() 0-2 @ 4.95% ( ![]() 1-3 @ 2.65% ( ![]() 2-3 @ 1.89% ( ![]() 0-3 @ 1.86% ( ![]() Other @ 2.65% Total : 29.81% |
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