Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AEK Athens win with a probability of 46.31%. A draw had a probability of 28.6% and a win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 25.14%.
The most likely scoreline for an AEK Athens win was 0-1 with a probability of 14.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.59%) and 1-2 (8.36%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.93%), while for an Asteras Tripolis win it was 1-0 (10%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.
0.75) 
-0.98) 
