Forest Green Rovers 2-1 Alvechurch - FA Cup Second Round - Football

When up against it, Alvechurch are a side that has proven in both the FA Cup and the FA Trophy that they can score goals against almost any team. They will undoubtedly give a depleted Forest Green team a challenge at the New Lane this weekend. However, the vast disparity between these two teams - including the star quality of Green's Wickham, Myles Peart-Harris and McGeouch - should see the home side win comfortably enough. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Forest Green Rovers win with a probability of 69.53%. A draw had a probability of 17.5% and a win for Alvechurch had a probability of 12.99%.

The most likely scoreline for a Forest Green Rovers win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.62%) and 1-0 (8.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.09%), while for an Alvechurch win it was 1-2 (3.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Forest Green Rovers would win this match.

Result
Forest Green Rovers	Draw	Alvechurch
69.53% ( -0.02)	17.48% ( 0)	12.99% ( 0.02)

Both teams to score 54.93% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

64.23% (

0.01)

35.76% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

42.16% (

0.01)

57.83% (

-0.01)

Forest Green Rovers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

90.73% (

-0)

9.26% (

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

68.7% (

-0.01)

31.3% (

Alvechurch Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

60.54% (

0.03)

39.46% (

-0.03)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

23.84% (

0.02)

76.15% (

-0.03)

Score Analysis

Forest Green Rovers 69.52%

Alvechurch 12.99%

Draw 17.48%

Forest Green Rovers	Draw	Alvechurch
2-0 @ 10.34% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0) 1-0 @ 8.7% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 8.2% ( -0.01) 3-1 @ 7.63% ( -0) 4-0 @ 4.88% ( -0.01) 4-1 @ 4.54% ( -0) 3-2 @ 3.55% ( 0) 5-0 @ 2.32% ( -0) 5-1 @ 2.16% ( -0) 4-2 @ 2.11% ( 0) 5-2 @ 1% ( 0) 6-0 @ 0.92% ( -0) Other @ 3.56% Total : 69.52%	1-1 @ 8.09% ( 0) 2-2 @ 4.47% ( 0) 0-0 @ 3.66% ( -0) 3-3 @ 1.1% ( 0) Other @ 0.17% Total : 17.48%	1-2 @ 3.76% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.4% ( 0) 0-2 @ 1.58% ( 0) 2-3 @ 1.39% ( 0) 1-3 @ 1.17% ( 0) Other @ 1.7% Total : 12.99%

	Team	P	W	D	L	F	A	GD	PTS
1	Arsenal	32	23	6	3	77	34	43	75
2	Manchester City Man City	30	22	4	4	78	28	50	70
3	Newcastle United Newcastle	31	16	11	4	54	25	29	59
4	Manchester United Man Utd	30	18	5	7	46	37	9	59
5	Tottenham Hotspur Spurs	32	16	5	11	58	51	7	53
6	Aston Villa	32	15	6	11	45	41	4	51
7	Liverpool	31	14	8	9	59	38	21	50
8	Brighton & Hove Albion Brighton	29	14	7	8	54	37	17	49
9	Fulham	31	13	6	12	44	42	2	45
10	Brentford	32	10	14	8	48	43	5	44
11	Chelsea	31	10	9	12	30	33	-3	39
12	Crystal Palace	32	9	10	13	31	40	-9	37
13	West Ham United West Ham	31	9	7	15	33	41	-8	34
14	Wolverhampton Wanderers Wolves	32	9	7	16	27	44	-17	34
15	Bournemouth	32	9	6	17	31	63	-32	33
16	Leeds United Leeds	32	7	8	17	41	62	-21	29
17	Leicester City Leicester	32	8	4	20	43	56	-13	28
18	Everton	32	6	10	16	24	46	-22	28
19	Nottingham Forest Nott'm Forest	32	6	9	17	26	59	-33	27
20	Southampton	32	6	6	20	27	56	-29	24

Form, Standings, Stats