SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Switzerland | 1 | 5 | 3 |
| 2 | Romania | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Israel | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 4 | Kosovo | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| 5 | Andorra | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 6 | Belarus | 1 | -5 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Switzerland win with a probability of 68.7%. A draw had a probability of 19.3% and a win for Israel had a probability of 12.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Switzerland win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (12.46%) and 2-1 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.15%), while for a Israel win it was 0-1 (4.39%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Switzerland would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Switzerland | Draw | Israel |
68.7% ( 0.26) | 19.28% ( -0.15) | 12.01% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 45.5% ( 0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.41% ( 0.33) | 46.58% ( -0.34) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.14% ( 0.31) | 68.85% ( -0.32) |
| Switzerland Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.52% ( 0.17) | 12.47% ( -0.18) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 61.56% ( 0.36) | 38.44% ( -0.36) |
| Israel Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 51.99% ( 0.01) | 48.01% ( -0.01) |
