SM
| Current Group I Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Switzerland | 5 | 9 | 11 |
| 2 | Romania | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| 3 | Israel | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 4 | Kosovo | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Belarus | 5 | -6 | 4 |
| 6 | Andorra | 5 | -4 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Romania win with a probability of 52.12%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Kosovo had a probability of 22.07%.
The most likely scoreline for a Romania win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.34%) and 2-1 (9.27%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.12%), while for a Kosovo win it was 0-1 (7.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Romania would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Romania | Draw | Kosovo |
52.12% ( 0.01) | 25.81% ( 0) | 22.07% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 46.35% ( -0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.68% ( -0.03) | 56.32% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.65% ( -0.02) | 77.35% ( 0.02) |
| Romania Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.33% ( -0) | 21.67% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.19% ( -0.01) | 54.81% ( 0.01) |
| Kosovo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.17% ( -0.03) | 40.83% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.6% ( -0.02) | 77.4% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Romania | Draw | Kosovo |
| 1-0 @ 13.52% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 10.34% ( 0.01)2-1 @ 9.27% ( -0)3-0 @ 5.27% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.72% ( -0)3-2 @ 2.12% ( -0)4-0 @ 2.02% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.81% ( -0)Other @ 3.05% Total : 52.11% | 1-1 @ 12.12% 0-0 @ 8.85% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.15% ( -0)Other @ 0.69% Total : 25.81% | 0-1 @ 7.93% ( 0) 1-2 @ 5.43% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.55% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.62% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.24% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.06% ( -0)Other @ 1.24% Total : 22.07% |
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