Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Norway win with a probability of 43.5%. A win for Scotland had a probability of 29.77% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Norway win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8%). The likeliest Scotland win was 0-1 (9.13%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Scotland in this match.