SM
| Current Group C Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | England | 7 | 18 | 19 |
| 2 | Italy | 7 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Ukraine | 7 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | North Macedonia | 7 | -10 | 7 |
| 5 | Malta | 8 | -18 | 0 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a England win with a probability of 56.41%. A draw had a probability of 23.7% and a win for North Macedonia had a probability of 19.89%.
The most likely scoreline for a England win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.57%) and 1-2 (9.72%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.26%), while for a North Macedonia win it was 1-0 (6.53%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| North Macedonia | Draw | England |
19.89% ( -1.12) | 23.7% ( -0.19) | 56.41% ( 1.3) |
| Both teams to score 49.41% ( -1.09) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 49.28% ( -0.61) | 50.71% ( 0.6) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 27.38% ( -0.54) | 72.61% ( 0.53) |
| North Macedonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.11% ( -1.52) | 39.89% ( 1.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 23.45% ( -1.43) | 76.55% ( 1.42) |
| England Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.2% ( 0.25) | 17.8% ( -0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.48% ( 0.44) | 48.52% ( -0.45) |
| Score Analysis |
| North Macedonia | Draw | England |
| 1-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.11) 2-1 @ 5.18% ( -0.27)2-0 @ 3% ( -0.18)3-1 @ 1.59% ( -0.15)3-2 @ 1.37% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 0.92% ( -0.1)Other @ 1.32% Total : 19.89% | 1-1 @ 11.26% ( -0.1) 0-0 @ 7.1% ( 0.17)2-2 @ 4.47% ( -0.19)Other @ 0.87% Total : 23.7% | 0-1 @ 12.25% ( 0.4) 0-2 @ 10.57% ( 0.43)1-2 @ 9.72% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.09% ( 0.3)1-3 @ 5.59% ( 0.05)0-4 @ 2.63% ( 0.15)2-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.09)1-4 @ 2.41% ( 0.04)2-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.03)0-5 @ 0.91% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.56% Total : 56.4% |
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