SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Austria | 4 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Belgium | 3 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Sweden | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Estonia | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 5 | Azerbaijan | 3 | -8 | 1 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estonia win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Sweden had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 27.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estonia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (7.47%). The likeliest Sweden win was 0-1 (10.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.12%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Sweden would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estonia | Draw | Sweden |
39.74% ( -0) | 27.94% ( 0.01) | 32.32% ( -0.01) |
| Both teams to score 47.49% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 41.59% ( -0.05) | 58.41% ( 0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 20.99% ( -0.04) | 79.01% ( 0.04) |
| Estonia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.3% ( -0.03) | 28.7% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.48% ( -0.03) | 64.52% ( 0.03) |
| Sweden Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.61% ( -0.03) | 33.39% ( 0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 29.98% ( -0.04) | 70.02% ( 0.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Estonia | Draw | Sweden |
| 1-0 @ 11.96% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 8.19% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.47% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.41% ( -0)3-0 @ 3.11% ( -0)3-2 @ 1.87% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.06% ( -0)4-0 @ 0.97% ( -0)Other @ 1.7% Total : 39.73% | 1-1 @ 13.12% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 9.58% ( 0.02)2-2 @ 4.49% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.74% Total : 27.94% | 0-1 @ 10.51% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 7.2% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.77% ( 0)1-3 @ 2.63% ( -0)0-3 @ 2.11% ( -0)2-3 @ 1.64% ( -0)Other @ 2.47% Total : 32.32% |
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