SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Braga win with a probability of 43.56%. A win for Servette had a probability of 32.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Braga win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.5%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Servette win was 2-1 (7.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Braga in this match.
| Result | ||
| Servette | Draw | Braga |
32.05% ( -0.24) | 24.38% ( -0.53) | 43.56% ( 0.76) |
| Both teams to score 58.79% ( 1.73) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.17% ( 2.31) | 43.82% ( -2.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.78% ( 2.22) | 66.21% ( -2.23) |
| Servette Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.73% ( 0.97) | 26.27% ( -0.98) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.61% ( 1.29) | 61.38% ( -1.29) |
| Braga Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.74% ( 1.31) | 20.26% ( -1.32) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.39% ( 2.06) | 52.6% ( -2.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| Servette | Draw | Braga |
| 2-1 @ 7.59% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( -0.53)2-0 @ 4.76% ( -0.21)3-1 @ 3.38% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 2.7% ( 0.17)3-0 @ 2.12% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 1.13% ( 0.06)4-2 @ 0.9% ( 0.08)Other @ 2.35% Total : 32.05% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.37) 2-2 @ 6.06% ( 0.22)0-0 @ 5.32% ( -0.56)3-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.14)Other @ 0.21% Total : 24.38% | 1-2 @ 9.07% ( 0.08) 0-1 @ 8.5% ( -0.52)0-2 @ 6.78% ( -0.13)1-3 @ 4.83% ( 0.23)0-3 @ 3.61% ( 0.08)2-3 @ 3.23% ( 0.24)1-4 @ 1.93% ( 0.16)0-4 @ 1.44% ( 0.09)2-4 @ 1.29% ( 0.14)Other @ 2.9% Total : 43.56% |
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