SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 41.5%. A win for Nice had a probability of 32.12% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.71%) and 2-0 (7.33%). The likeliest Nice win was 0-1 (9.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Lazio | Draw | Nice |
41.5% ( -2.11) | 26.38% ( 0.4) | 32.12% ( 1.71) |
| Both teams to score 52.15% ( -0.55) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 47.53% ( -1.04) | 52.46% ( 1.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.86% ( -0.9) | 74.14% ( 0.9) |
| Lazio Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.03% ( -1.51) | 24.97% ( 1.51) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.39% ( -2.14) | 59.61% ( 2.15) |
| Nice Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.51% ( 0.65) | 30.49% ( -0.65) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.29% ( 0.76) | 66.71% ( -0.77) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lazio | Draw | Nice |
| 1-0 @ 10.56% ( -0.03) 2-1 @ 8.71% ( -0.25)2-0 @ 7.33% ( -0.35)3-1 @ 4.03% ( -0.3)3-0 @ 3.39% ( -0.32)3-2 @ 2.39% ( -0.14)4-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.17)4-0 @ 1.18% ( -0.17)Other @ 2.52% Total : 41.5% | 1-1 @ 12.54% ( 0.19) 0-0 @ 7.61% ( 0.31)2-2 @ 5.17% ( -0.06)3-3 @ 0.95% ( -0.04)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.37% | 0-1 @ 9.04% ( 0.52) 1-2 @ 7.45% ( 0.24)0-2 @ 5.37% ( 0.4)1-3 @ 2.95% ( 0.15)0-3 @ 2.13% ( 0.19)2-3 @ 2.05% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.13% Total : 32.12% |
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