SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Besiktas win with a probability of 51.98%. A win for Lugano had a probability of 24.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Besiktas win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.43%) and 2-0 (8.4%). The likeliest Lugano win was 1-2 (6.32%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Besiktas would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Besiktas | Draw | Lugano |
51.98% ( -0.25) | 23.3% ( 0.21) | 24.71% ( 0.05) |
| Both teams to score 57.01% ( -0.66) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 56.28% ( -0.9) | 43.72% ( 0.9) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.89% ( -0.89) | 66.11% ( 0.89) |
| Besiktas Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.15% ( -0.42) | 16.85% ( 0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.14% ( -0.75) | 46.85% ( 0.75) |
| Lugano Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.56% ( -0.45) | 31.44% ( 0.45) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.18% ( -0.52) | 67.81% ( 0.52) |
| Score Analysis |
| Besiktas | Draw | Lugano |
| 2-1 @ 9.72% ( -0.01) 1-0 @ 9.43% ( 0.24)2-0 @ 8.4% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.77% ( -0.09)3-0 @ 4.99% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 3.34% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 2.57% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.22% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 1.49% ( -0.06)5-1 @ 0.92% ( -0.04)Other @ 3.14% Total : 51.98% | 1-1 @ 10.91% ( 0.14) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.08)0-0 @ 5.3% ( 0.21)3-3 @ 1.29% ( -0.05)Other @ 0.18% Total : 23.3% | 1-2 @ 6.32% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 6.13% ( 0.16)0-2 @ 3.55% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 2.44% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.17% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.37% ( 0)Other @ 2.75% Total : 24.71% |
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