SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PSV Eindhoven win with a probability of 61.67%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 17.77%.
The most likely scoreline for a PSV Eindhoven win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.77%) and 0-1 (9.43%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.6%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 2-1 (4.88%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that PSV Eindhoven would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
17.77% ( 0.02) | 20.56% ( 0.01) | 61.67% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 55.81% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.66% ( 0) | 40.34% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 37.29% ( 0) | 62.71% ( -0) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.85% ( 0.02) | 36.15% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 27.07% ( 0.02) | 72.93% ( -0.02) |
| PSV Eindhoven Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 87.41% ( -0) | 12.59% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | ||||||||
| 61.32% ( -0.01) | 38.68% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sparta Rotterdam | Draw | PSV Eindhoven |
| 2-1 @ 4.88% ( 0) 1-0 @ 4.63% ( 0)2-0 @ 2.36% ( 0)3-2 @ 1.72% ( 0)3-1 @ 1.66% ( 0)Other @ 2.53% Total : 17.77% | 1-1 @ 9.6% ( 0) 2-2 @ 5.06% ( 0)0-0 @ 4.55% 3-3 @ 1.19% ( 0)Other @ 0.17% Total : 20.56% | 1-2 @ 9.94% 0-2 @ 9.77% ( -0)0-1 @ 9.43% ( -0)1-3 @ 6.87% ( -0)0-3 @ 6.75% ( -0)1-4 @ 3.56% ( -0)0-4 @ 3.5% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.5% ( 0)2-4 @ 1.81% ( 0)1-5 @ 1.48% ( -0)0-5 @ 1.45% ( -0)Other @ 3.61% Total : 61.67% |
| Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
| C | Feyenoord | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 81 | 30 | 51 | 82 |
| 2 | PSV EindhovenPSV | 34 | 23 | 6 | 5 | 89 | 40 | 49 | 75 |
| 3 | Ajax | 34 | 20 | 9 | 5 | 86 | 38 | 48 | 69 |
| 4 | AZ AlkmaarAZ | 34 | 20 | 7 | 7 | 68 | 35 | 33 | 67 |
| 5 | FC Twente | 34 | 18 | 10 | 6 | 66 | 27 | 39 | 64 |
| 6 | Sparta RotterdamSparta | 34 | 17 | 8 | 9 | 60 | 37 | 23 | 59 |
| 7 | FC UtrechtUtrecht | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 55 | 50 | 5 | 54 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 34 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 44 | 50 | -6 | 46 |
| 9 | RKC WaalwijkRKC Waalwijk | 34 | 11 | 8 | 15 | 50 | 64 | -14 | 41 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 45 | 50 | -5 | 40 |
| 11 | Go Ahead Eagles | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 46 | 56 | -10 | 40 |
| 12 | NECNijmegen | 34 | 8 | 15 | 11 | 42 | 45 | -3 | 39 |
| 13 | Fortuna SittardSittard | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 39 | 62 | -23 | 36 |
| 14 | FC VolendamVolendam | 34 | 10 | 6 | 18 | 42 | 71 | -29 | 36 |
| 15 | SBV ExcelsiorExcelsior | 34 | 9 | 5 | 20 | 32 | 71 | -39 | 32 |
| 16 | EmmenEmmen | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 33 | 65 | -32 | 28 |
| R | Cambuur | 34 | 5 | 4 | 25 | 26 | 69 | -43 | 19 |
| R | Groningen | 34 | 4 | 6 | 24 | 31 | 75 | -44 | 18 |
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