SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Groningen win with a probability of 48.69%. A win for Heerenveen had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Groningen win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.49%) and 2-0 (8.24%). The likeliest Heerenveen win was 0-1 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.58%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Groningen in this match.
| Result | ||
| Groningen | Draw | Heerenveen |
48.69% ( 0.09) | 24.49% ( -0.02) | 26.82% ( -0.06) |
| Both teams to score 55.14% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.85% ( 0.05) | 47.14% ( -0.05) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 30.62% ( 0.05) | 69.38% ( -0.05) |
| Groningen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.58% ( 0.06) | 19.42% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.75% ( 0.09) | 51.25% ( -0.09) |
| Heerenveen Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.42% ( -0.02) | 31.57% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.02% ( -0.02) | 67.98% ( 0.03) |
| Score Analysis |
| Groningen | Draw | Heerenveen |
| 1-0 @ 10.04% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.49% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.19% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 4.5% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 2.99% ( 0)4-1 @ 2.13% ( 0.01)4-0 @ 1.84% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.05% Total : 48.68% | 1-1 @ 11.58% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 6.13% ( -0.01)2-2 @ 5.47% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.15% ( 0)Other @ 0.15% Total : 24.48% | 0-1 @ 7.07% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 6.68% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 4.07% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 2.57% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0)0-3 @ 1.57% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.77% Total : 26.82% |
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