Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 72.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.4% and a win for Heerenveen had a probability of 11.85%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.89%) and 3-1 (8.1%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.73%), while for a Heerenveen win it was 1-2 (3.42%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
