Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 41.99%. A win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 36.18% and a draw had a probability of 21.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-3 (5.17%) and 0-1 (5.05%). The likeliest SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.77%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
