Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Eswatini win with a probability of 47.62%. A win for Lesotho had a probability of 27.09% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Eswatini win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (8.44%). The likeliest Lesotho win was 0-1 (7.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Eswatini would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
