Setting up a potential Derby della Capitale clash in the quarter-finals - where arch-rivals Roma will await if they can overcome second-tier Cremonese - Lazio should make the most of home advantage to knock out Genoa, whose main goal is Serie A survival.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 58.25%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Genoa had a probability of 16.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.85%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.58%) and 2-1 (9.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.36%), while for a Genoa win it was 0-1 (7.16%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lazio in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Lazio.
0.07) 
-0.03) 
