Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 36.31%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 35.7% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.78%) and 2-0 (6.65%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (11.12%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.16%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Patronato would win this match.
