Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Boca Juniors win with a probability of 55.2%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Newell's Old Boys had a probability of 18.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Boca Juniors win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.79%) and 2-1 (8.96%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.84%), while for a Newell's Old Boys win it was 0-1 (7.83%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Boca Juniors would win this match.
