Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 47.12%. A win for Antofagasta had a probability of 28.52% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.68%). The likeliest Antofagasta win was 1-2 (7%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.45%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.
