The onus is largely on the home side to seize the initiative and secure a first-leg advantage heading into the return leg. We fancy them to come out on top, albeit by only a narrow margin.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Deportivo Tachira win with a probability of 43.35%. A win for Independiente del Valle had a probability of 31.37% and a draw had a probability of 25.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Deportivo Tachira win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.61%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.02%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Independiente del Valle win was 0-1 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood.
0.04) 
-0.01) 
