SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 42.35%. A draw had a probability of 31.3% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 26.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 0-1 with a probability of 16.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.06%) and 1-2 (7.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (15.01%), while for a Penarol win it was 1-0 (11.97%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Penarol | Draw | Botafogo |
26.3% ( -1.79) | 31.35% ( 0.34) | 42.35% ( 1.45) |
| Both teams to score 36.64% ( -1.57) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 29.53% ( -1.43) | 70.47% ( 1.43) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 12.47% ( -0.92) | 87.53% ( 0.92) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 54.96% ( -2.44) | 45.04% ( 2.44) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 19.03% ( -2.02) | 80.97% ( 2.01) |
| Botafogo Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.67% ( 0.09) | 33.33% ( -0.1) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.05% ( 0.1) | 69.95% ( -0.1) |
| Score Analysis |
| Penarol | Draw | Botafogo |
| 1-0 @ 11.97% ( -0.18) 2-1 @ 5.25% ( -0.43)2-0 @ 4.78% ( -0.41)3-1 @ 1.4% ( -0.22)3-0 @ 1.27% ( -0.21)Other @ 1.64% Total : 26.3% | 0-0 @ 15.01% ( 0.78) 1-1 @ 13.15% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.23)Other @ 0.3% Total : 31.34% | 0-1 @ 16.49% ( 0.89) 0-2 @ 9.06% ( 0.51)1-2 @ 7.23% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 3.32% ( 0.2)1-3 @ 2.65% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.08)0-4 @ 0.91% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.64% Total : 42.35% |
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