Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Saint Lucia win with a probability of 50.94%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Dominica had a probability of 21.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Saint Lucia win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.52%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.82%) and 2-1 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.43%), while for a Dominica win it was 0-1 (8.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Saint Lucia would win this match.
0.16) 
-0.01) 
