Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montserrat win with a probability of 38.53%. A win for Barbados had a probability of 34.41% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montserrat win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.26%) and 0-2 (6.89%). The likeliest Barbados win was 1-0 (9.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montserrat would win this match.
0.01) 
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