Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 51.65%. A win for Shanghai SIPG had a probability of 25.71% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.25%) and 0-2 (7.68%). The likeliest Shanghai SIPG win was 2-1 (6.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood.
