SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 54.66%. A win for Qingdao Youth Island had a probability of 22.78% and a draw had a probability of 22.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (9.31%) and 0-2 (8.71%). The likeliest Qingdao Youth Island win was 2-1 (5.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.52%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Qingdao Youth Island | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
22.78% ( 0) | 22.55% ( 0.08) | 54.66% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 57.25% ( -0.27) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.67% ( -0.37) | 42.33% ( 0.36) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.26% ( -0.36) | 64.73% ( 0.36) |
| Qingdao Youth Island Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.68% ( -0.2) | 32.32% ( 0.2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 31.17% ( -0.22) | 68.82% ( 0.22) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 84.59% ( -0.16) | 15.41% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 55.76% ( -0.29) | 44.23% ( 0.29) |
| Score Analysis |
| Qingdao Youth Island | Draw | Beijing Guoan |
| 2-1 @ 5.94% 1-0 @ 5.63% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 2.24% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.09% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.2% Other @ 2.51% Total : 22.78% | 1-1 @ 10.52% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.56% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 4.98% ( 0.08)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.02)Other @ 0.19% Total : 22.55% | 1-2 @ 9.84% 0-1 @ 9.31% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 8.71% ( 0.05)1-3 @ 6.13% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 5.43% 2-3 @ 3.46% ( -0.04)1-4 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)0-4 @ 2.54% ( -0.01)2-4 @ 1.62% ( -0.03)1-5 @ 1.07% ( -0.02)0-5 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.74% Total : 54.66% |
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