SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Beijing Guoan win with a probability of 38.72%. A win for Chengdu Rongcheng had a probability of 35.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Beijing Guoan win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.5%) and 2-0 (6.31%). The likeliest Chengdu Rongcheng win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Beijing Guoan would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng |
38.72% ( 0.15) | 25.48% ( 0.02) | 35.8% ( -0.17) |
| Both teams to score 55.98% ( -0.1) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 52.08% ( -0.12) | 47.92% ( 0.13) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.91% ( -0.11) | 70.09% ( 0.12) |
| Beijing Guoan Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.63% ( 0.02) | 24.37% ( -0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.22% ( 0.03) | 58.78% ( -0.03) |
| Chengdu Rongcheng Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.02% ( -0.15) | 25.98% ( 0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39% ( -0.21) | 61% ( 0.21) |
| Score Analysis |
| Beijing Guoan | Draw | Chengdu Rongcheng |
| 1-0 @ 8.94% ( 0.05) 2-1 @ 8.5% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 6.31% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 2.97% ( 0.02)3-2 @ 2.7% ( -0)4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.05% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 0.95% ( -0)Other @ 1.89% Total : 38.72% | 1-1 @ 12.04% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.33% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 5.73% ( -0.02)3-3 @ 1.21% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 25.47% | 0-1 @ 8.54% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 8.12% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 5.75% ( -0.02)1-3 @ 3.65% ( -0.03)0-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)2-3 @ 2.58% ( -0.02)1-4 @ 1.23% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.36% Total : 35.8% |
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