Although Cuiaba have struggled in front of goal this season, they have tended to fare well on their travels, and we think that they will extend their unbeaten away run to four matches with a narrow victory over a Vasco da Gama side who have lost six consecutive games.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Vasco da Gama win with a probability of 53.6%. A draw had a probability of 25.7% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 20.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.88%) and 2-1 (9.23%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.99%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (7.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Vasco da Gama in this match.
1.18) 
-0.35) 
