With each of Vasco da Gama's success coming on home territory this season, they cannot be ruled out of winning this contest. Nevertheless, Cruzeiro look one of the strongest challengers thus far and we are backing them to edge a competitive game.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cruzeiro win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Vasco da Gama had a probability of 28.8% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cruzeiro win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.06%) and 0-2 (8.14%). The likeliest Vasco da Gama win was 1-0 (8.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%). The actual scoreline of 0-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.
4.03) 
-5.85) 
