Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bragantino win with a probability of 40.9%. A win for Gremio had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bragantino win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.41%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.48%) and 2-0 (7.52%). The likeliest Gremio win was 0-1 (9.79%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Bragantino in this match.
