Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 48.66%. A win for Cercle Brugge had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.77%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest Cercle Brugge win was 1-2 (6.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.97%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 11% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.01) 
