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Liverpool: When can Arne Slot's side win the Premier League? How early could they clinch the title?

:Headline: Liverpool: When can Arne Slot's side win the Premier League? How early could they clinch the title?:
Sports Mole looks at how early Liverpool could win the Premier League title and assesses when they are most likely to clinch the top-flight crown.
Sports Mole

The elusive quadruple that Liverpool fans are still pining for remains out of sight for now, but come the sunshine of May, Arne Slot and his crop will surely be proudly parading their Premier League trophy.

The Reds enter the March international break on the back of their most damaging week of the season, having been eliminated from the Champions League at the hands of Paris Saint-Germain before ceding their EFL Cup crown to Newcastle United.

However, Liverpool still boast a double-digit lead over Arsenal at the summit of the Premier League table, and as long as they do not suffer the collapse of all collapses, the 2024-25 crown will be theirs in the coming weeks.

But just exactly how many weeks will Liverpool fans need to wait for the title? Here, Sports Mole calculates the earliest that Liverpool could win the league, and when they are likely to.


What do Liverpool need to win the Premier League?

After Arsenal beat Chelsea 1-0 in their game in hand on March 16, Mikel Arteta's men are 12 points behind Liverpool with just nine matches remaining, and therefore 27 points still on offer.

Arsenal's current total of 58 points means that they can only achieve a maximum of 85, whereas Liverpool are capable of finishing the season with 97, but only 86 are needed to take home the crown.

As a result, Liverpool must win five and draw one of their remaining nine matches to claim the 16 points needed to guarantee the title, meaning that they can still afford three defeats between now and the end of the season.


What is the earliest that Liverpool can win the Premier League? Can they set a new record?

In the absolute best case scenario, Liverpool could be crowned Premier League champions as early as April 13, on the assumption that only Arsenal will still be in with a mathematical chance of overhauling the Reds at the summit by that point.

For that to happen, Liverpool would firstly need to beat Everton and Fulham early next month, while also hoping that Arteta's men lose to the same opponents, which would see the Reds hold 76 points and the Gunners sit on 58 with just seven games remaining.

If Arsenal are also surprisingly beaten at home to Brentford on April 12, Liverpool would only need one point at home to West Ham United the next day, which would put them 19 points clear of Arsenal with only 18 left to play for.

Liverpool winning the 2024-25 Premier League title with six games left to play would be the second-earliest a side has ever won the top-flight crown since 1992, only behind their own record from the 2019-20 season, when Jurgen Klopp's men were guaranteed to finish first with seven games remaining.


When are Liverpool likely to win the Premier League title?

From Liverpool's best-case scenarios to a more likely set of results, the Reds are backed to win their second Premier League title in gameweek 35 on May 3.

In this instance, Slot's side would defeat all of Everton, West Ham United, Leicester City and Tottenham Hotspur over the next five gameweeks, while only dropping points in a draw with European-chasing Fulham at Craven Cottage in gameweek 31.

At the same time, Arsenal would overcome the Cottagers at home while also defeating Brentford, Ipswich Town and Crystal Palace, but Arteta's men may also have to accept a draw in gameweek 31 away to an in-form Everton side.

Arsenal and Liverpool matching their results over the next five gameweeks would see Liverpool hold 83 points and Arsenal sit on 71 with four games remaining, so no matter what the Gunners do at home to Bournemouth on May 3, Slot's side will be champions if they avoid defeat against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge.


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Premier League Table
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Liverpool29217169274270
2Arsenal291610353242958
3Nottingham ForestNott'm Forest29166749351454
4Chelsea29147853371649
5Manchester CityMan City29146955401548
6Newcastle UnitedNewcastle2814594738947
7Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton29121164842647
8Fulham2912984338545
9Aston Villa2912984145-445
10Bournemouth29128948361244
11Brentford29125125045541
12Crystal Palace2810993633339
13Manchester UnitedMan Utd29107123740-337
14Tottenham HotspurSpurs291041555431234
15Everton2971393236-434
16West Ham UnitedWest Ham2997133349-1634
17Wolverhampton WanderersWolves2975174058-1826
18Ipswich TownIpswich2938182862-3417
19Leicester CityLeicester2945202565-4017
20Southampton2923242170-499
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