SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belgrano win with a probability of 35%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 34.81% and a draw had a probability of 30.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Belgrano win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.02%) and 0-2 (6.78%). The likeliest Independiente win was 1-0 (13.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.51%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Independiente | Draw | Belgrano |
34.81% ( -0.96) | 30.19% ( 0.01) | 35% ( 0.95) |
| Both teams to score 41.64% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.31% ( -0.01) | 65.69% ( 0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.63% ( -0.01) | 84.37% ( 0) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.47% ( -0.66) | 35.53% ( 0.66) |
