SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 47.05%. A win for Lanus had a probability of 26.48% and a draw had a probability of 26.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.06%) and 2-0 (8.93%). The likeliest Lanus win was 0-1 (8.66%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.52%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Estudiantes would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Estudiantes | Draw | Lanus |
47.05% ( -0.44) | 26.47% ( 0.1) | 26.48% ( 0.35) |
| Both teams to score 48.75% ( -0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.63% ( -0.14) | 55.37% ( 0.14) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.43% ( -0.11) | 76.57% ( 0.11) |
| Estudiantes Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.47% ( -0.26) | 23.53% ( 0.26) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 42.43% ( -0.38) | 57.57% ( 0.38) |
| Lanus Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.75% ( 0.22) | 36.25% ( -0.21) |
