Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melbourne City win with a probability of 51.01%. A win for Sydney FC had a probability of 25.23% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Melbourne City win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.66%) and 2-0 (8.45%). The likeliest Sydney FC win was 0-1 (6.48%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.19%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melbourne City would win this match.
